The chief editor of the British site pocketgamer.biz, which is dedicated to mobile games industry, at the end of the GDC conference shared his view on what is happening in the global mobile industry and what will happen to it in the nearest future.
1. Money is not important
Many developers now test their games without monetization. They release a beta version, polish gameplay and carefully look at people’s behavior. And they pay special attention to the training mode (training mode in the game – is crucial to the success of the game).
They think that if the project shows a good metric and it is played – it will not be difficult to implement monetization, and earn money from it. By the way, the wisdom of such an approach was proved by the company NimbleBit (authors Tiny Tower), and Imangi (creators of the Temple Run), which have released the free, but highly profitable projects.
2. Long-term investment
Free-2-Play-projects have been presented in the mobile market during last ten years. So a lot of developers have understood already that these games should be designed with the long-term expectation: they start earning after a while.
LTV – Lifetime Value Team (the total amount a player spends on a particular game for the time of its existence) is becoming more important indicator of game success.
3. Gold rush
Gambling (poker, casino, roulette) may blow up the mobile market.
At least, the leading market players are confident about it and they buy the developers, which are versed in such amusements: Playtika, which is responsible for the Slotomania development, was bought by Caesars in the end of 2011; Big Fish Games has bought Self Aware Games, known for Card Ace Casino.
Why everybody trying to get into this still free market?
This is simple – it’s all about money. On the average gambler you can earn up to $250.
Comparing to $40 from LTV player in the mobile farm. Do you see the difference?
4. Problems with Apple
iTunes App Store – is the most promising market. Especially, for those who want to earn a lot. However, in recent years, developers are increasingly criticizing its services. The fact that the guys in Apple are too slow: they solve problems, which are requiring a quick, immediate intervention, for too long.
5. The new iPad – a strike upon the industry?
The fun is this is strike upon iOS-segment. Because of the new device there is no place to outsiders on the market now, but there is a place for fragmentation.
The new features of the tablet will be learned without any problems by developers from Epic (and Fishlabs, MadFinger, NaturalMotion, Revo Solutions and many others). But for smaller companies that do not have such budgets, and therefore opportunities – a new device with a screen Retina – this is not a step forward.
Total: the emergence of a powerful gadget could remove the small developers from the market.
6. Cross-advertisement
Everybody dreams about attracting users to their projects. But the question is how it can be done without spending a lot of costs.
The answer is in the title – with the help of cross-advertisement.
Many mobile developers and publishers have used this type of advertisement for a long time, promoting their new or just less popular games in their successful projects. So there is no surprise that the number of cross-promotional networks is growing rapidly.
7. Analytical boom
Along with the growth of cross-promotional networks number, the number of companies engaged in research, evaluation and analysis of the market is increasing too. There are a lot of them already, however, usually Flurry Analytics or Sensor Tower are recognized. Perhaps, in the nearest future another star will rise among the analyst firms – and that’s wonderful, because there are can not be too much information about applications and stores.
8. Sleeping Leader
We often talk about the struggle between different platforms. The developers argue over who will win – iOS, Android or maybe someone else? They share thoughts about the future of Microsoft (controversial) and Amazon (perspective). But, in fact, the effect of all these companies on the market is much smaller than it is believed and rather different from what they can provide for real.
For example, only 20% of the Bejeweled Blitz players on iOS are using Facebook Connect, to compare their results with friends. And no matter that the game is social.
The fact is that none of the major developers have not decided for themselves whether the game industry is the priority vector of their development or not. And while this have not happened yet, the main developers will remain dormant, but a real struggle for leadership is a matter of an unpredictable future.
9. Platform
The GDC, which was held in March, had the one keyword – platform.
Here is the definition of this notion: the applications network with integrated service.
The problem is that there are more and more of such networks. Everyone among small or large manufacturer is trying to open their own network (and with the help of it he provides cross-advertisement, as mentioned above).
For example, both GREE and DeNA have done that. But this is just a drop in the ocean, because there is Game Center on iOS, Scoreloop from RIM, as well as the sea of Chinese platforms the most important of which is Papaya. Also, do not forget about The9, which have opened the Game Zone and iDreamSky, running the Skynet. In general, the list can be continued for a long time.
Ideally, the best platform gather all the proposals, but this is in ideal case. In fact, it turns out that average mobile player is registered at least on six platforms.
At which exactly? Well, it depends on gender, age, geographic location and type of games that he likes.
And this is just a user side of the business.
Indeed, in a time when manufacturers are trying to keep the user in their own gaming networks, companies like Tapjoy, Fiksu and GetJar are creating common trade area, covering several different platforms.
Do not forget about the fact that applications stores are also platforms.
It turns out that the industry of mobile applications – is a kind of pyramid, formed from a variety of platforms, each forming another platform, which, in turn, form a large platform formation. In other words, this industry – is not a pair of competing big companies, but a huge number of interdependent networks.
10. It’s simplicity
With the release of more powerful gadgets games are becoming more complicated and more complex. And more money are spend on their marketing. On the other hand, games like Tiny Wings and the Temple Run show that complication is not the best way. Sometimes just fine and sensibly implemented idea works just great.
Up to the last GDC, many understood this.